Blockchain Prediction Markets: Where They Came From, Why They Matter & How to Regulate Those Involved


This Note defends the social value produced by well-regulated prediction markets, then offers a novel approach for liability analysis in the context of markets formed using blockchain technology. After establishing the weaknesses of individual predictions and the benefits that forecasting tools can offer, Section I introduces prediction markets and explains how they generate valuable information. Section II then describes blockchain technology and the properties that make it so effective in the realm of prediction markets. Section III focuses on the regulatory environment surrounding prediction markets and considers the unique complications presented by distributed ledgers. Finally, Section IV depicts frameworks of liability analysis developed in intellectual property common law and proposes a novel application of these principals as applied to blockchain prediction markets.


Blockchain technology, Prediction markets, Distributed ledgers, Intellectual property



Joshua D. Dubin (Washington University School of Law)



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