Visualizing Probabilistic Proof

Abstract

The author revisits the Blue Bus Problem, a famous thought-experiment in law involving probabilistic proof, and presents Bayesian solutions to different versions of the blue bus hypothetical. In addition, the author expresses his solutions in standard and visual formats, that is, in terms of probabilities and natural frequencies.

Keywords

Law, Evidence, Bayes, Blue Bus Problem, Probability, Statistics, Natural frequency, Probabilistic proof, Smith v. Rapid Transit, Inc.

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Authors

Enrique Guerra-Pujol (University of Central Florida Dixon School of Accounting & College of Business Administration)

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