Abstract

International trade law has become increasingly affected by growing geopolitical tensions and the United States’ turn towards an “America First” trade policy. These national security and nationalism trends are altering the contours of global commerce and adding uncertainty about the trajectory of interstate trade relationships. Not only are major trading powers—the United States, the European Union, and China—reconsidering their trade policies, but many smaller nations that depend on trade for their security and prosperity are searching for new routes to establish stable trade networks. The future and purpose of the World Trade Organization (WTO) are also being reconsidered as the institution faces significant challenges in its mission to maintain negotiated tariff levels, resolve disputes, and foster new agreements.

This Essay takes stock of the current moment in international trade law when the path ahead seems uncertain. To do so this Essay addresses four questions: (1) How have the growing geopolitical tensions and use of national security exceptions changed trade law?; (2) Are the Trump Administration’s trade policies, particularly in his second term, based on traditional national security concerns or a more leverage-based, extractive model?; (3) What is the role for middle powers in a less institutionalized, more power-based international system?; and (4) How can the WTO repurpose itself to aid middle powers who want and need a global trade institution?

Keywords: International trade law, interstate trade relationships, WTO, Trump Administration, national security